Fiscal deficit forecasts in Europe: evidence for a double standard?
نویسندگان
چکیده
Fiscal forecasts produced by international institutions came under strong criticism after the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis due to excessive optimism. Presently, organizations are also accused of applying a double standard. Their opponents claim they depict negative picture for populist governments. This paper evaluates provided IMF, European Commission and OECD based on panel EU economies selected large countries. Five years Sovereign crisis, we still find excessively optimistic Portugal Spain. Moreover, EC being indulgent countries deficit procedure. There is autocorrelation forecast errors cyclical biases – overestimates governments’ propensity tighten fiscal policy during expansion an overly pessimistic slowdown. However, no evidence suggesting that stigmatize governments populism.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Baltic Journal of Economics
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2334-4385', '1406-099X']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099x.2021.1888439